The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan was widely predicted to sweep the 2020 Bihar elections, yet they lost. Was it simply the ‘Jungle Raj’ narrative that failed them? The answer lies in a complex mix of Congress’s abysmal performance, the credibility crisis caused by unrealistic promises (like 10 lakh jobs), and the strategic failure to break free from the Yadav-centric caste politics. Find out why voters, at the crucial moment, stuck with the NDA.
The detailed analysis of the main reasons for the defeat of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, including their unrealistic electoral promises and the failure of Rahul Gandhi’s narrative:
1. Lack of Leadership and Coordination
A primary reason for the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan was a severe lack of strategic coordination. There was significant delay in seat-sharing before the election, and in many constituencies, rebel candidates (referred to as ‘friendly fights’) emerged within the alliance. Early on, contradictory news regarding the Chief Ministerial candidate (Tejashwi Yadav) also emerged from the top leadership of Congress and RJD, which the opposition effectively exploited. In the campaign, while Tejashwi focused on the job promise, Congress campaigned on separate national issues, resulting in the absence of a Common Minimum Programme or a unified strategy. This disunity paled in comparison to the well-planned campaign of the NDA.
2. Overrepresentation of Yadav Candidates
The RJD gave tickets to Yadav candidates in approximately 36% (about 52) of its 144 seats. This move showcased the party’s dependence on its old ‘Yadav-Muslim’ (MY) equation but proved to be strategically incorrect. Opposition parties immediately ran a narrative of the return of ‘Yadav Raj’ or ‘Jungle Raj’, which alienated voters from Forward Castes, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and the urban/middle class. This overrepresentation reinforced the RJD’s caste-based image among non-Yadav prominent Backward Castes (like Kurmi, Koeri) and upper castes, resulting in their votes shifting to the NDA.
3. Weak Performance of Congress
The performance of the Congress Party, a key ally in the Mahagathbandhan, was extremely disappointing. Congress was allotted 70 seats but won only 19. The party’s candidates were often not locally strong or were not accepted by the electorate. The organizational weakness and inadequate groundwork of the party were clearly visible. Had Congress performed better in its allotted seats, the Mahagathbandhan could have easily secured a majority. This failure of the Congress proved to be a decisive factor in the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan.
4. Image of ‘Jungle Raj’
Even though Tejashwi Yadav tried to project himself as a youthful, development-focused leader, the NDA effectively used the ‘Jungle Raj’ narrative (referring to the poor law and order situation during the Lalu-Rabri era). Leaders of the NDA, including PM Modi and Nitish Kumar, constantly compared ‘Good Governance vs. RJD’ on every platform. This refreshed the negative perception of the RJD in the minds of a large section of voters (especially women and the middle class). This image could not be entirely dispelled even among young voters, compelling people to stick with the NDA despite Tejashwi’s promise of 10 lakh jobs.
5. Unrealistic Promises and Credibility Crisis
The electoral promises made by the RJD and Congress-led Mahagathbandhan were considered unrealistic, which led to a crisis of credibility. The most prominent was the RJD’s promise of ’10 lakh government jobs’. The opposition immediately questioned the financial resources for such a large number of appointments and whether new taxes would be imposed. A large section of voters felt it was merely an election gimmick that would be impossible to fulfill. The questions over the credibility of implementation and the comparison between NDA’s experience and RJD’s overly ambitious promises led voters to view the NDA as the safer and more realistic option.
6. Failure of Rahul Gandhi’s National Narrative
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi attacked the central and state governments on issues like economic mismanagement and unemployment, but his narrative failed to elicit the expected electoral response. The Bihar election was primarily focused on local issues. The NDA, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, presented a strong narrative of development, national pride, and welfare schemes (like free rations). The national-level issues raised by Rahul Gandhi failed to directly connect with local voters, and his limited number of rallies also prevented his narrative from gaining traction at the grassroots level.
